A Sign of Things to Come
When a Congressional District votes 25% for George Bush over John Kerry, Republicans should not have a problem holding that seat.
So how did this happen?
In a major blow to national Republicans, a Mississippi congressional seat that once voted for President Bush by a twenty-five point margin elected a Democrat on Tuesday. Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers beat out Republican candidate Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven, by a 54%-46% margin, a spread that several Republican strategists on Capitol Hill characterized as a startling wake-up call for a party in dire straits.
Voters cast ballots for the fourth time in three months for the seat, vacated when Republican Roger Wicker was appointed to fill the remainder of Senator Trent Lott's term. After winning the primary and the runoff election, Childers came within 410 votes of winning the first round of the special election against Davis on April 22, beating the Republican by a 49%-46% margin.
Last night, Childers, a conservative Democrat, again outperformed Davis in many rural counties. Childers did better than in April in eighteen out of twenty four counties, while he underperformed in just two counties. Childers held steady in three of the remaining counties, while Winston County produced just ten votes. Most importantly, Childers held firm in Lee County, the district's largest and home to Tupelo, winning 58% of the vote, while improving his showing in DeSoto County, Davis's home field. Childers won 25% of the vote in DeSoto County, better than his anemic 17% showing in April.
Again, this Congressional seat should have been a "slam dunk" for the GOP. Couple this with the polling we saw yesterday between Cornyn and Noriega for the Texas Senate race, are we in for a real sea change?
Over at The Corner they seem to think so:
We Are Totally Frakked [Mark Krikorian]
If the GOP can't hold on to a House seat in the Deep South that Bush won by 25 points, it's going to be 1974 all over again
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