a very interesting read, on what is turning into a repeat of the lead up to the war in Iraq.
At this point, I would say it is too early to say, for certain, if this is just some political posturing leading up to the elections in November, or if there is a real plan to invade Iran.
Nonetheless, the rhetoric coming from the right is a very useful teaching tool. Much of what is being put out, is very similar to the rhetoric leading up to the Iraq war. Without searching out, and linking to all of the tortured rhetoric that was used in the lead up to the Iraq war, we can see, which Silber helpfully linked to in his essay above, that the "danger of an armed Iran" line is being played today. We are told that Iran shouldn't can't have nuclear weapons. All while ignoring the source of the technology that Iran is being sold, namely Russia. What is truly frightening, to anyone who really cares about the state of our military, and whether or not there will be a draft, is that assuming that things follow the Iraq playbook (and there is nothing yet to suggest that it will be any different), we will not have a real warning when the shooting will start. The difference in this case being that military assets are already in the region, and it is a matter of redeploying those in theater assets, or more likely, extending the theater of battle into Iran (or Syria, Libya, ...).
In any case, we can expect to see the issue of a "nuclear Iran" turning into a political meme very soon. The 101st Fighting Keyboarders have already received their marching orders, and, like the good little pawns they are, they have been typing up exactly what they have been told to.
There have already been some initial forays from the right-wing blogs into the mainstream media, particularly Fox News, about the threat of Iran, and we should soon start hearing people like David Brooks, John Tierney, Charles Krauthammer, Fred Barnes, and others who pass along RNC talking points, nearly verbatim, revving up the mighty wurlitzer.
The fact that I or Atrios or anyone else recognizes that the U.S. can neither launch, nor sustain a war with Iran, doesn't matter to any of those people currently advocating action against Iran. The fact that starting military action against Iran, will only strengthen the ties between Iran, and the currently friendly (to Iran) government we installed in Iraq, and what little goodwill that may exist towards the U.S. in Iraq will finally vanish (ignoring for the moment, all other countries in the M.E. which already are hostile towards the U.S.) is beside the point. Never mind that this increasingly threatening language, used to describe what Iran is doing, is the exact opposite of what is needed to change the situation in Iraq. At this point, anything coming from the Bush administration (and by extension the right-wing blogs), needs to be dismissed for what it is.
Fear-mongering.
I fear, that if it is ignored, the battle cry of the 101st Fighting Keyboarders, will intensify in volume, until the media starts really playing along.
At this point, Democrats (and anyone sane enough to oppose action with Iran), needs to start pointing out the insanity of this plan. While the thought of a "nuclear armed Iran" is not a pleasant one, how many people were advocating invasion of either Pakistan or India when they gained nuclear weapons? And let's be frank, which country is more dangerous to U.S. interests, than North Korea, at this point.
If this noise machine is allowed to fully develop into what we saw with Iraq, then I fear that the Democrats will fall back to their "we support war too" position, with tortured explanations of "I voted for it, before I voted against it", and whether the actual threat to invade is real or political posturing, won't matter.
However, as Arthur points out, the battle to stop action in Iran may already be lost, as some on the left are parroting Bush talking point:
But the Iran propaganda has even infected many liberals and progressives. Yesterday, Atrios noted the following:
The other night during the SOTU when I was at CAP Action Fund with Sam Seder I was on for a bit with Amy Sullivan from the Washington Monthly. Seder asked us both to name the biggest threat to the Republic, aside from George Bush and Dickey Cheney. Sullivan responded, with all seriousness, Iran.
Along the same lines, I read this on the front page at Daily Kos last week:
There is little doubt that a nuclear Iran is the largest threat that the world now faces--the most pressing foreign policy issue facing us today.
For a moment, I thought I had mistakenly clicked on a link to the latest Michael Ledeen diatribe, or to one of the other National Review propagandists. As I indicated, I will show later in this series that this view is completely indefensible. "The largest threat that the world now faces"? "The most pressing foreign policy issue"? I find it simply astonishing that the most widely-read liberal blog should highlight such a delusional view -- and there is no other way to describe it accurately. This is and will be Bush's major line of propaganda on Iran now and in the future, a line that will be faithfully echoed by most of the media. Why is Daily Kos parroting it so unquestioningly? (It is clear from some comments to that post that this view is far from unique at Daily Kos.)
So, what is the largest threat the world faces?
If not Iran as a nuclear power, what?
Arthur rightly notes, that besides the problem of "loose nukes" in Russia, with India and Pakistan facing each other down. The issue of an independent Taiwan still is on the table. What would be China's position if the U.S. further weakens its military capabilities by tying up more resources in Iran? How soon would China act against Taiwan?
Given the ease with which one can deflate the ludicrous notion that a nuclear Iran would constitute "the largest threat" facing the world, it is a cause for great concern that this view has so completely taken over rational debate on the subject. It is of even greater concern when we remember that we are only discussing a potential. But note how a central part of the propaganda campaign works: several months ago, the usual estimate for the time Iran would need to develop nuclear weapons was about ten years. Then it got reduced to five years. Now, people speak as if Iran will have nuclear weapons in the next few months. The unavoidable implication of this tactic is the obvious one, the one that Bush used so disastrously with Iraq: we need to act now. We have to do something now. There is only one word to describe this approach: it is not reasoned discourse -- it is hysteria, pure and simple.
(emphasis mine)
So where are we left?
As I suggested above, politically, Democrats (and particularly those running for (re-)election in November, need to start countering this message of hysteria. Those that are not running in 2006, but are in 2008, need to start assisting in the countering of this hysteria.
In particular the Senate, whose members seem to get all of the airtime on television, need to start acting in the best interest of the country. It is not a winning solution to wait until the hysteria migrates from the fringe right (bloggers, right-wing "news" websites, etc.) into the mainstream punditocracy and journalism. By the time it became obvious that the invasion of Iraq was going to go forward without a international coalition, it was too late to stop it (in all honesty, it should have been vigorously opposed much earlier). If anyone is going to be able to stop war with Iran, they need to step up now. It doesn't matter if there is no real plan to invade. If people think there is a plan, they will start preparing for it, and the "Republicans are strong on national security" message is again lost.
This is just the beginning of the war of words that is being, again, launched by the right. And yet again, it appears that some on the left are capitulating early on.
Whether or not Iran gets nuclear weapons, is not the real issue here. The real issue is fear. The Republicans, and the far-right that is quickly taking over, want people afraid. By keeping the public afraid, our civil liberties are taken away, one by one.
A fearful public is a compliant public.